The Idiot Cycle

Ignoring real issues and disregarding potential solutions.

The Secret Service’s National Threat Assessment Center studied 173 public attacks occurring between January 2016 and December 2020 looking for patterns. Their study found these acts of violence have numerous similarities:

• Most of the attackers acted alone and were men. Though attackers ranged in age from 14 to 87, the average age skewed younger at 34.

  • Related mental health issue: Suicide rate among males is four times higher than among females.

• Nearly all attackers experienced a significant life stressor in the five years prior to the attack; 77% of them experienced one within the previous year. Half of the incidents were motivated by “perceived wrongs” in the workplace or at home.

• Nearly half of the attackers had a history of perpetuating misogyny and/or domestic violence and these behaviors “deserve increased attention” from law enforcement.

• The study found nearly two-thirds of attackers said or did things so “objectively concerning” that they “should have been met with an immediate response.”

• Many attackers had a history of physically aggressive or intimidating behaviors, evidenced by prior violent criminal arrests/charges, domestic violence, or other acts of violence toward others.

• Most of the attackers had exhibited behavior that elicited concern in family members, friends, neighbors, classmates, co-workers, and others, and in many cases, those individuals feared for the safety of themselves or others.

• Over half of the attackers experienced mental health symptoms prior to or at the time of their attacks, including depression, psychotic symptoms, and suicidal thoughts.

• Many of these red flags were reported to law enforcement, employers, and others prior to the mass attack but not acted upon.

• Most of the attackers used firearms, however, many of those firearms were possessed illegally despite existing gun control at the time of the attack.

The study’s big takeaway: Recognizing shared patterns among past mass attacks early could help prevent future tragedies. That’s what the Secret Service has found to be the primary indicators. Download a copy: https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/2023-01/usss-ntac-maps-2016-2020.pdf

Additional numbers:

• There were 24,576 homicides in 2020 compared to 200,955 accidental deaths. (CDC)

• In 2021, 12,520 recorded murders in the United States were committed by firearm. (Statistica)

• 80% of gun homicides are gang-related. (ABC)

Lessons:

• If you are interested in saving lives, focus on preventing accidental deaths.

• If you are interested in stopping gun violence, focus on eliminating gangs/organized crime.

• If you are interested in stopping homicide and suicide, focus on mental illness.

Now stand by while elected officials ignore all this and push for more gun control. Thus, the idiot cycle:

1. Act of violence occurs.

2. Studies indicate primary influences are mental health, economic disparity, or similar issues, and that common symptoms/indicators will likely be apparent.

3. Ignore all this and pursue gun control “solutions” instead.

4. Repeat.

If simple availability of firearms was the primary driver of violence, every summer at Camp Perry since 1907 would have been carnage. Port Clinton, Ohio has a population of about 6,000 people. I’ve been at the National Matches with over 1,200 shooters, each armed with multiple semi-automatic firearms (mostly AR-15s) and hundreds of rounds of ammunition (or more!) with even more available for purchase on Commerical Row. Yet, there was a distinct lack of violence and this has occurred nearly every summer for well over a century.

Every dollar and every minute wasted on a gun control initiative could have instead been used to address a real problem. NSSF has an example of something that can help:
https://www.nssf.org/articles/nssfs-project-childsafe-local-leaders-launch-project-childsafe-columbia-to-address-firearm-safety-suicide-prevention/

Thanks to John Tate for sharing data!